UGP 61: FIGHT FORECASTER

MAIN EVENT
UGP LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
© BENJI MEYERS vs #2 CATHERINE HARRIS
FAN POLL: 73.3% Meyers

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Benji Meyers by Decision — This rematch is an intriguing stylistic clash that will force both fighters to navigate the areas of their game where they’ve shown vulnerabilities. Benji Meyers’ striking is obviously a major threat, utilizing his wide karate stance to keep opponents at bay with sharp, precise kicks and lightning-fast counters. That stance creates difficult angles, allowing him to land clean shots while maintaining distance, frustrating those who try to close the gap. He’s also shown more fluidity in transitioning between stances, making him an even more unpredictable striker. On the other hand, Catherine Harris has a suffocating top game built around her relentless chain wrestling and grinding ground and pound. When they first met at UGP 39, Harris dominated by controlling the tempo and neutralizing Benji’s striking by constantly pressuring him into grappling exchanges. Since then, Benji has made improvements in his takedown defense and his ability to scramble back to his feet. I think his striking advancements, combined with better defensive wrestling, will allow him to dictate the range and score points, ultimately doing enough to win a decision in what will likely be a closely contested fight.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Benji Meyers by Decision – If the title win against Sadie showed anything, it’s that Benji’s grappling is still his weak point, and that could lend itself to Cat’s advantage–but I don’t think she’ll get the chance to make use of it in the same way Sadie did. Sadie at least approaches fights in an unusual way, Cat is an incredibly predictable fighter. She’s going to try to take you down, a lot, and Prodigy in particular will know that. I think they’ll have Benji prepared for it, and combined with his unusual striking technique, I think he’ll take a comfortable, if not necessarily emphatic decision win.

CO-MAIN EVENT
UGP BANTAMWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
© VICTORIA MARSHALL vs #2 EUGENIE BOMBELLES
FAN POLL: 66.7% Marshall

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Eugenie Bombelles by T/KO, Round 4 — The third chapter of this rivalry carries a unique energy, particularly as both fighters have evolved since their days in Everest MMA. While Eugenie Bombelles dominated their first two encounters, including a first round finish to claim the Everest MMA SZN 2 Strawweight Title, the landscape has changed. Marshall’s eleven-fight unbeaten streak shows her growth, but I believe this fight exposes some of the vulnerabilities that have lingered. Marshall’s last fight against CC Flynn highlighted her struggles with strikers. Flynn’s boxing gave her problems, and Bombelles brings a much more diverse striking arsenal. Bombelles is a fluid and creative striker, utilizing excellent footwork and seamlessly mixing in low kicks, body shots, and sharp elbows in the clinch. She excels at breaking her opponent’s rhythm with feints and constant movement, and her ability to attack from different angles will prevent Marshall from finding her usual comfort. Marshall’s grappling is still a weapon, but Bombelles has solid defense and has shown an ability to get back to her feet quickly, even under pressure. As the fight wears on, I expect Bombelles to start picking Marshall apart, creating openings with body shots and leg kicks before setting up the finish. By the fourth round, I predict Bombelles will overwhelm her with a barrage of strikes, leading to a stoppage.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Victoria Marshall by Submission, Round 5 – It might be recency bias, but I don’t think this fight looks anything like their first two. Victoria’s evolved considerably as a fighter since her Strawweight days, and her performances since then show it. Eugenie’s going to punish her, of that I have no doubt, but I think the fight will go deep into the championship rounds, and Victoria’s style being what it is, I think it’ll force Eugenie into over-exerting herself and leaving an opening for the champ to take advantage of.

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
#4 DEEBO BRIGGS vs ZION MOMO’A
FAN POLL: 66.7% Briggs

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Deebo Briggs by Decision — In this highly anticipated rematch, I see Deebo Briggs evening the score and tying up the series with Momo’a. Momo’a’s highly anticipated return to Union GP after a long layoff raises serious questions about ring rust. His last fight was back at RFC 5: Leap of Faith in December 2023 — against none other than Briggs himself. Since then, rumors of retirement have swirled during Momo’a’s sabbatical, and while he’s had time to rest and recover, that extended period of inactivity could affect his timing and sharpness. Briggs, on the other hand, has kept himself sharp, going 2-1 against top level competition in the Middleweight Division. What’s important to note is how his game has evolved during that stretch. Briggs may be aging, but his fight IQ has matured. He’s more measured in his approach, using smarter movement, improved defensive striking, and managing his energy more efficiently. His wrestling and clinch work remain strong suits, allowing him to grind down opponents in grueling exchanges when needed. Momo’a has power and can pose a threat on the feet, but Briggs’ ability to control the tempo of the fight, work his jab, and use his veteran savvy to force Momo’a into uncomfortable positions will be key. Momo’a’s conditioning and timing will be tested, and I think Briggs, with the pressure of knowing his championship window is closing, will rise to the occasion. I expect him to win a gritty decision, setting his sights on the Middleweight Champion, Alexander Sokolov, for the next chapter of his redemption tour.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Zion Momo’a by TKO, Round 3 – I know, I know, every fight is different and anything can happen on any given night, but I just don’t think enough time has really gone by to change how this fight plays out. Both guys are who they are at this stage in their careers, their styles aren’t changing too much, and last time it was a first round knockout for Zion back in Ryujin. I don’t really know what could’ve changed between then and now, except the length of the rounds.

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
#7 CIARAN CALLAHAN vs #9 SERENITY HOLMES
FAN POLL: 57.1% Callahan

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Ciaran Callahan by Decision — This top ten Bantamweight clash is a must-watch as both Callahan and Holmes have been on an impressive upward trajectory, showcasing well rounded skills in all phases of the game. While both fighters are highly adaptable and dangerous no matter where the fight takes place, I give the edge to Callahan based on the visual test and the finer details of his technique. Callahan’s striking is crisp and precise, with excellent footwork that allows him to control range and dictate the pace of his fights. He’s particularly effective at using feints and combinations to set up his attacks, keeping opponents guessing and creating openings for powerful counters. His ability to mix in kicks and body shots makes him a dynamic threat on the feet, and he transitions seamlessly into grappling exchanges. On the ground, Callahan’s top control is suffocating, and his ability to pass guard and land damaging ground and pound could be pivotal in this fight. While Holmes has solid wrestling and can hold her own in scrambles, Callahan’s positional awareness and technique in maintaining control will likely give him the edge if the fight goes to the mat. In the clinch, Callahan’s use of short strikes and body control allows him to wear down opponents, further draining their energy over the course of the fight. Holmes is no slouch, with dangerous power and a solid submission game, but I see Callahan being the more polished of the two, especially when it comes to maintaining composure and executing a game plan under pressure and in deep waters. I expect Callahan to dictate where the fight takes place, win exchanges in every phase, and secure a hard fought decision victory, positioning himself for a potential leap into the top five of the division.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Ciaran Callahan by Decision – Serenity survived the first major test of her career in a resurging Syn Saetang, but she did it by the skin of her teeth. I don’t think Ciaran lets her get that fortunate a second time. This is a significant step up in competition, even if the rankings don’t necessarily reflect that right now, and I think it may be just a little too much, a little too soon.

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
#8 MAGDALENA MORUGA vs #10 SYN SAETANG
FAN POLL: 53.3% Saetang

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Magdalena Moruga by T/KO, Round 3 — This main card opener features two Bantamweights who are both in must-win situations to stay relevant in the division, and potentially employed in the company. Magdalena Moruga’s recent skid is concerning, having lost four of her last five fights, but the level of competition she’s faced tells a deeper story. Every one of those losses came against former champions or title challengers, both in Union GP and Everest MMA, so while the losses have stacked up, she’s been fighting at the highest level. That experience will be crucial in this bout. Saetang, on the other hand, may be on a shorter leash in her second stint after a rocky first stint and will no doubt bring everything she has. Her tenacity and ability to dig deep have never been in question, but the key issue here is whether she can match Moruga’s skill and power in the striking department. Moruga is a dangerous striker with a diverse array of attacks. She likes to work behind a heavy jab and uses angles effectively to set up her combinations. Her leg kicks are brutal and can quickly wear down opponents, limiting their mobility and opening up head and body shots later in the fight. While Saetang may have heart and solid fundamentals, she has at times shown to get drawn into exchanges that favor her opponents, and against someone like Moruga, that could spell disaster. Moruga has shown an ability to turn up the pressure as the fight goes on, and with Saetang’s defensive gaps, I see Moruga breaking her down with punishing combinations and leg kicks that take their toll over the course of the fight. By the third round, I expect Moruga’s volume and power to overwhelm Saetang, leading to a finish, solidifying her spot in the division and possibly reigniting her run toward title contention.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Syn Saetang by TKO, Round 3 – Two fighters trending in opposite directions; Syn is 3-1 since returning to Union, and you could make the argument that she could’ve won the fight against Holmes at UGP 59, while Magdalena has only won 1 of her last 5. Mags needs the fight significantly more, but I don’t think I see it coming–I think Syn’s going to come out wanting to make a statement, and it’s just unfortunate that Mags is across the cage from her.

WELTERWEIGHT GRAND PRIX SEMIFINAL
KIRK JENKINS vs CONNOR BOUCHARD
FAN POLL: 62.5% Jenkins
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Kirk Jenkins by T/KO, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Connor Bouchard by Submission, Round 3

WELTERWEIGHT GRAND PRIX SEMIFINAL
MUSTAFA AL-MASRI vs HENDRIK GEEN
FAN POLL: 62.5% Al-Masri
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Mustafa Al-Masri by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Hendrick Geen by TKO, Round 2

FEATHERWEIGHT GRAND PRIX SEMIFINAL
ISABEL AZEVEDO vs JALEN BRIGGS
FAN POLL: 66.7% Briggs
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Isabel Azevedo by Submission, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Isabel Azevedo by Submission, Round 2

FEATHERWEIGHT GRAND PRIX SEMIFINAL
KATYA BELINSKAYA vs CARTER  VAUGHN
FAN POLL: 53.3% Vaughn
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Carter Vaughn by Submission, Round 3
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Katya Belinskaya by TKO, Round 3

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION
MARCEL JENKINS vs RYO MITSUNARI
FAN POLL: 62.5% Jenkins
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Marcel Jenkins by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Marcel Jenkins by Decision

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
EMMA HUNT vs VERONA JIMENEZ 
FAN POLL: 68.8% Jimenez
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Verona Jimenez by T/KO, Round 3
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Verona Jimenez by TKO, Round 2

WELTERWEIGHT DIVISION
JACK DONOVAN vs MATEO DE LEON 
FAN POLL: 82.4% Donovan
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Jack Donovan by T/KO, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Jack Donovan by Decision

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
MORGAN LECHANCE vs SKY SAKARYA
FAN POLL: 56.3% Sakarya
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Morgan LeChance by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Sky Sakarya by Decision

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
MEIGUI BLACKMAN vs XIMENA ROMERO
FAN POLL: 75% Blackman
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Ximena Romero by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Meigui Blackman by TKO, Round 3

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
AYUMI HIKARI vs XIA YAN
FAN POLL: 50% Tie
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Ayumi Hikari by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Xia Yan by Decision

2024 PREDICTION RECORD
Kayla Chapman 48-24 | Isaac Cohen 35-37