UGP 62: FIGHT FORECASTER

MAIN EVENT
UGP HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
© DONNIE CALABRESE vs #10 (P4P) GAUGE LATTIMORE

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Donnie Calabrese by Decision — Donnie Calabrese’s evolution over his career has been remarkable. His second act in Union GP is defined by precision and strategy, complemented by his legendary knockout power. Against Lattimore, however, this fight may demand patience. Gauge’s experience across several promotions and his adaptability as a two-division (three if you include G2) champion make him a dangerous opponent. Still, coming out of retirement raises concerns about ring rust and conditioning, particularly in a five-round battle. I see Donnie utilizing his heavy hands to dictate the pace, keeping Gauge at bay with calculated combinations while avoiding risky exchanges. Calabrese’s fight IQ and conditioning will allow him to win rounds and secure the decision in a high-stakes heavyweight chess match.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Donnie Calabrese by TKO, Round 4 – When you come out of retirement for a specific fight, it raises a lot of questions. Not least of which, how prepared were you before the fight got announced? I don’t doubt Gauge is training, but was he training for a 25 minute fight with the hardest puncher in UGP right now? I wouldn’t gamble on that. I think this will be a back and forth fight early on, but unless Gauge surprises me and he has been preparing for a fight like this the whole time, the longer it goes, the more openings he’ll give Donnie for a finish late on.

CO-MAIN EVENT
UGP MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
© ALEXANDER SOKOLOV vs #1 DERRIUS WEBB

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Derrius Webb by Decision — The first fight between these two was razor-close, and while Sokolov emerged victorious, Webb’s intensity and unrelenting pace proved to be a challenge multiple times. This go-round, I expect Derrius to refine his strategy to offset Sokolov’s striking rhythm. Webb’s ability to pressure and maintain control will be key as he seeks to disrupt Sokolov’s timing. With the bad blood simmering from their previous meeting, Webb’s motivation to reclaim his title could push him to edge out more rounds on the scorecards. This rematch has the makings of another grueling, tightly contested war.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Derrius Webb by Decision – You could make the argument that Derrius won their first fight, and it certainly seemed like he thought he did. And that can be a significant motivator; it’s hard to stay at the top, and Derrius did it for a long time, but this is Sokolov’s chance to prove that win wasn’t a fluke. I’m leaning on the experience and motivation here, which leads me to think a fight relatively similar to their first, but with a different outcome.

INAUGURAL UGP WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 KIRK JENKINS vs #2 HENDRIK GREEN

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Kirk Jenkins by T/KO, Round 4 — Hendrik Geen’s rise through this tournament has been meteoric, but his relative inexperience in MMA could be his undoing against a veteran like Jenkins. Kirk’s unpredictability and ability to adapt make him a tough puzzle to solve. I see Jenkins weathering Geen’s early blitz, using feints and lateral movement to frustrate the kickboxer. As Geen begins to tire from a high-paced battle, Jenkins will exploit defensive lapses, picking his shots to overwhelm Hendrik in the championship rounds. Jenkins has the experience to thrive in these deeper waters, leading to a TKO finish late in the fight.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Hendrik Green by TKO, Round 2 – In 2 fights in Union, Hendrik Green hasn’t wasted time putting his stamp on the Welterweight Grand Prix, and I think tonight that continues. Kirk Jenkins has been impressive, and despite the early finish I’m calling for, I don’t think this will be a lopsided fight, but he’s been in back and forth fights to this point, where Hendrick’s emphatically finished his two opponents. I think it’ll be a competitive two round fight, but Hendrik finds the finish late in round 2.

INAUGURAL UGP FEATHERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 ISABEL AZEVEDO vs #2 KATYA BELINSKAYA

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Isabel Azevedo by Submission, Round 4 — Both fighters have compelling redemption arcs, but Azevedo’s blend of high-level BJJ and striking versatility gives her a decisive edge. While Katya’s clinch game and cardio will allow her to compete early, the fight dynamics shift drastically on the ground. Isabel’s ability to control positions and hunt for submissions will put her ahead as the fight progresses. Once Azevedo adjusts to Belinskaya’s range, she’ll capitalize on a takedown opportunity and lock in a submission in the championship rounds.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Isabel Azevedo by Submission, Round 3 – The first of our title fights ends a Cinderella story in my opinion. Katya’s been great since she came back, including stopping Abbie Peterson in her return fight, but Izzi’s been at or near the top of 135 basically since she got hired, and moving up to 145 hasn’t really slowed her down. It may be a slow start, with Izzi having to figure out Katya’s range and speed, but before long, it’ll hit the mat and that’s where it’ll end.

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
#3 ALEX HUGHES vs #6 MANDEM

ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Alex Hughes by T/KO, Round 3 — This matchup pits Hughes’ technical precision against MANDEM’s raw explosiveness. MANDEM’s unpredictability and power make him dangerous early, but Hughes’ disciplined kickboxing and pressure can neutralize that. If Alex avoids the firefight and systematically picks apart MANDEM with leg kicks and body strikes, the wild card will begin to unravel. By the third round, fatigue and cumulative damage will catch up to MANDEM, allowing Hughes to pour on the offense and secure a finish.

KAYLA’S PREDICTION: MANDEM by TKO, Round 3 – Momentum is a hell of a thing, and while there was the stumble in the draw against Rachel Parsons, MANDEM has the momentum, along with every physical tool he needs going into this fight. He has the size, he has the reach, Alex’s best bet is to take him down early and often but she has to get into range for that to happen and I just don’t expect her to see many opportunities.

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
#5 ABBIE PETERSON vs LUCIJA DRAGICEVIC
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Lucija Dragicevic by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Lucija Dragicevic by Decision

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION
#9 MARCELA VARGAS vs #10 CHRISTOPHER GORDON
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Marcela Vargas by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Marcela Vargas by Submission, Round 2

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION
#8 EDEN REID vs TREVOR MARTIN
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Eden Reid by T/KO, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Eden Reid by TKO, Round 3

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
#9 LOVELIE SAINT-CYR vs REECE PARKER
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Lovelie Saint-Cyr by T/KO, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Lovelie Saint-Cyr by Decision

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
#10 SHINTARO OKANO vs SASHA VOLKOV
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Sasha Volkov by T/KO, Round 2
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Sasha Volkov by TKO, Round 1

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
#7 IGNACIO ZAMBRANO vs #9 COLE CARTER
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Cole Carter by T/KO, Round 3
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Cole Carter by Decision

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION
JOHNNY LAWS vs ALIYAH MARSHALL
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Johnny Laws by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Johnny Laws by TKO, Round 2

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
SAM STEELE vs KRISTOPHE CERULLI
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Sam Steele by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Kristophe Cerulli by Decision

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
TRISTANO D’AMICO vs KATIE DENT
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Katie Dent by Decision
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Tristano D’Amico by Decision

WELTERWEIGHT DIVISION
#10 AZIZ QASIM vs ROBIN KELSON
ISAAC’S PREDICTION: Robin Kelson by T/KO, Round 3
KAYLA’S PREDICTION: Robin Kelson by TKO, Round 2

2024 PREDICTION RECORD
Kayla Chapman 59-28 | Isaac Cohen 43-44